Falling battery costs to push solar, wind to 50% electricity generation by 2050, but electricity still failing CO₂ reduction targets – BNEF

Solar PV capacity is set to grow 17-fold, and wind six-fold, by 2050, to account for nearly half of global electricity generation, predicts BNEF, while investments will reach US$11.5 trillion. Cost reductions will drive this charge, particularly in the battery market, which will benefit from the EV manufacturing ramp up. Despite this, the electricity sector is still failing to bring CO₂ emissions down to the required levels, with its continued dependence on gas.

June 19, 2018 Marian Willuhn

The main emphasis in BNEF’s report is on batteries.

Image: Neoen

In its 2018 New Energy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) sees skyrocketing growth in the global solar and wind energy markets up to 2050.

Overall, it anticipates that solar and wind will account for nearly half of global electricity generation by this date, driven by “precipitous“ cost reductions – leading to levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) falling 71% by 2050, following a 77% decrease between 2009 and 2018, says BNEF – and “cheaper and cheaper” batteries.

At the end of March, BNEF calculated that solar’s LCOE in the first half of 2018 was $70/MWh (minus tracking systems).

A total of $11.5 trillion is also expected to be invested in new power generation capacity, globally, between 2018 and 2050, writes BNEF, with $8.4 trillion of that going to solar and wind; and $1.3 trillion to new gas capacity (nearly half of which will go to gas-fired power plants, rather than combined-cycle turbines).

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