Global PV installations may hit 660 GW in 2024, says Bernreuter Research

Bernreuter Research says low module prices will drive demand in the second half of this year. The researchers note the shipment targets of the world’s six largest solar module suppliers, who are aiming for an annual growth rate of 40% on average.

June 18, 2024 Patrick Jowett

Image: Bernreuter Research

Global PV installations will range from 600 GW to 660 GW in 2024, according to Bernreuter Research.

Bernreuter said its forecast is supported by the shipment targets of the world’s six largest solar module suppliers for 2024. On average, JinkoSolar, Longi, Trina, JA Solar, Tongwei, and Canadian Solar aim for a growth rate of 40%, which, based on global solar installations of 444 GW in 2023, would result in 622 GW of newly installed capacity in 2024.

“Even if leading players gain market share as tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers struggle in the current low-price environment, it is likely that new PV installations will exceed 600 GW (DC) this year,” said Bernreuter.

Bernreuter’s latest report, “Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027,” said low module prices will fuel demand in the second half of the year. “Once market participants conclude that the crash of the solar module price has reached its bottom, demand will accelerate,” explained Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research.

Global solar installations of 630 GW to 660 GW would exceed the report’s high scenario of 620 GW. The report also noted that China, with a market share of more than 50%, will continue driving global PV installations forward.

“Our new analysis confirms the more aggressive forecast approach we have adopted in the report,” said Bernreuter.

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