from pv magazine Germany
The installation market for private PV rooftop systems in Germany is currently undergoing consolidation, with a global market shakeout driven by looming overcapacity. Frank Niendorf, general manager Europe at JinkoSolar, said this shakeout will affect the solar industry, particularly second-tier manufacturers, and could cause shifts among large Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers.
“The consolidation will probably not spare manufacturers from the second tier and will also lead to shifts among the very large photovoltaic manufacturers from China,” Niendorf said in a recent interview with pv magazine.
The industry is competing for sales markets, with module prices in some segments falling below manufacturing costs, according to Niendorf. This price pressure is reflected in the financial reports of module manufacturers. JinkoSolar, the last major Chinese photovoltaic manufacturer still listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, recently reported positive quarterly results for the first quarter of 2024.
JinkoSolar’s balance sheet reveals that sales of solar modules, cells, and wafers increased by more than 50% to nearly 22 GW, although turnover was 1.2% lower year on year, hitting $3.19 billion. The company still managed to post a net profit of $84.4 million.
This performance positions JinkoSolar better than many of its domestic competitors, who are no longer listed on the Nasdaq and publish their financial forecasts on Chinese stock exchanges. Recent figures from other large PV manufacturers indicate heavy losses. For example, Longi Solar expects a net loss of at least $660.2 million for the first half of this year – a significant downturn from last year’s profits due to falling prices and inventory writedowns. Similarly, JA Solar anticipates a loss of up to $166 million in the first half of the year, attributing this to increased competition and continuous price drops.
“Companies with less than 100 gigawatts of vertically integrated PV capacity will have little chance”
Many medium-sized and smaller PV manufacturers in China currently face intense competitive pressure. Niendorf said that companies with less than 100 GW of vertically integrated PV capacity have little chance of surviving in the market. He noted that global production capacity is around 1.3 TW, while demand is only about 500 GW to 600 GW. He said he did not expect the market to match production capacities in the short term, especially as many manufacturers continue to expand. He predicted that “consolidation will come.”
Niendorf also noted that JinkoSolar’s management has long recognized the shift from passivated emitter and rear contact (PERC) to TOPCon technology. The company has largely completed the transition to n-type TOPCon products, sparing it the burden of converting production lines in the current market situation.
According to Niendorf, JinkoSolar expected to sell 100 GW to 110 GW of products this year – mainly solar modules, but also cells and wafers. Nearly 90% of these sales are projected to be n-type solar modules. By the end of the year, JinkoSolar aims to have production capacities of 120 GW for wafers, 110 GW for solar cells, and 130 GW for solar modules. The company also targeted an efficiency of 26.5% for its n-type solar cells in mass production.
JinkoSolar is pushing forward with PV technology development despite challenging times, while also exploring new business areas. The company has identified energy storage as a key opportunity. Last year, it introduced a home storage system at Intersolar Europe, and this year, it expanded its offerings to include storage solutions for commercial and large-scale systems.
“Storage is now the new big thing,” said Niendorf. He expects the storage business to have the potential to become as big as the module business in the long term. For JinkoSolar at least, it is set to become another important pillar.
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