The world is moving closer to an important climate tipping point, and the upcoming COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, carries high expectations. This summit, occurring 29 years after the first Conference of the Parties in Berlin, finds the world facing geopolitical unrest, economic issues, and worsening environmental problems.
With countries dealing with the effects of climate change, like extreme heat and severe flooding, COP29 brings a bit of hope. However, will this meeting of global leaders and environmental groups really create the significant change the planet needs?
Azerbaijan, as this year’s host, takes on the task of guiding complex negotiations while handling urgent issues like climate finance, energy transition, biodiversity loss, and adaptation plans. As nations meet, the global community waits anxiously to see if COP29 will be a milestone or another missed opportunity.
Turning promises into action
A key topic expected to be discussed at COP29 is climate finance, which has been a recurring issue at earlier summits. The $100 billion yearly promise from wealthy countries made during COP28 continues to be a contentious issue. Even though commitments have been stated, implementation is lagging, resulting in at-risk nations lacking essential assistance to deal with climate challenges. In fact, India has even called out developed nations for failing to meet the commitments and is pushing to extend that promise to $1 trillion.
This year, the summit is expected to revolve around the establishment of a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance post-2025. The conversation has been shifted from billions to trillions, as countries such as Vanuatu, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Mozambique push for substantial financial banking, along with India, for adaptation efforts, particularly in areas such as flood prevention and infrastructure development.
A significant discussion will be the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund, established to help countries deal with the aftermath of climate-related disasters. At its core, this fund is about climate justice. Vulnerable nations—those who contributed the least to global emissions but are facing the worst impacts—are asking for fair compensation. The world will be eagerly watching to see if COP29 can deliver a functional, swift mechanism for these funds, setting the stage for equitable climate action.
The Bridgetown Initiative, led by Barbados PM Mia Mottley, advocates for reforms in international financial institutions, such as the World Bank, to increase their climate lending capacity. This effort signals a shift in how multilateral development banks can be restructured to meet the demands of the 21st-century climate crisis. These discussions on climate finance are expected to dominate the UN Climate Conference in Baku.
Shifting from fossil fuels to renewables
Last year, the COP 28 held in Dubai set a groundbreaking precedent recognizing the need to phase out fossil fuels. Yet, nothing concrete on the framework has been initiated.
The energy transition is fraught with complexity, especially for nations heavily reliant on fossil fuel industries. This year, COP29 will witness intense negotiations to balance the phase-out of fossil fuels with the socio-economic needs of communities tied to these industries. Equitable transitions will be a cornerstone of discussions, ensuring that the shift to renewables doesn’t leave workers and industries in the lurch.
Countries such as Germany and India, both on the frontlines of renewable energy expansion, are all set to announce enhanced targets at COP29. Germany, as Europe’s largest economy, has been aggressively scaling up its solar and wind sectors, while India continues to navigate its path away from coal with a growing focus on solar power and battery storage solutions.
Just energy transitions, ensuring that no one is left behind as the world moves away from fossil fuels, will be a dominant theme. Azerbaijan, however, has remained somewhat neutral on the topic, focusing more on global peace and stability in its presidency’s agenda. This stance could hinder progress, particularly if key players like the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs)—comprising Saudi Arabia in particular—continues to push back against stringent fossil fuel reductions.
Harnessing the power of ecosystems
As habitats shrink and species disappear, the role of nature-based solutions (NBS) is gaining prominence as a vital component of global climate strategies. COP29 is expected to elevate the importance of NBS, highlighting their potential to absorb carbon while preserving biodiversity.
Countries including Costa Rica and Indonesia are all set to showcase their successful reforestation and sustainable agriculture models, demonstrating how the preservation and restoration of natural ecosystems can both combat climate change and protect wildlife. Initiatives like reforestation, sustainable ocean management, and the integration of biodiversity protection into national climate plans will be at the forefront of COP29 discussions.
COP29 discussions are likely to highlight the need for new conservation finance mechanisms, aiming to fund large-scale projects that can protect natural habitats while supporting carbon reduction efforts.
Safeguarding the most vulnerable
COP29 is anticipated to advance the Global Goal on Adaptation, with a renewed emphasis on the National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) that countries are required to submit. These plans will detail how nations intend to foster their infrastructure, water systems, and agricultural sectors to better withstand the onslaught of climate-induced disasters.
The summit is expected to seeking a way to close the gap between adaptation needs and available resources on a crucial note. There can be discussions on integrating climate adaptation into national development strategies, ensuring that the most vulnerable communities—especially in developing nations—have the necessary tools to cope with rising temperatures, severe droughts, and more frequent storms.
The future of carbon markets lies within Article 6
Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, Article 6 has been one of the most contentious elements. This crucial provision, which sets the framework for international carbon markets, has the potential to significantly reduce global emissions by allowing countries to trade carbon credits. Yet, despite years of negotiations, progress has been limited.
At COP29, the world will once again attempt to finalize the rules for trading carbon credits under Article 6. This includes addressing concerns about transparency, market manipulation, and ensuring that these markets contribute to real emissions reductions. The operationalisation of Article 6.2 and Article 6.4—the latter establishing a centralized carbon market overseen by the United Nations, will be key to the success of global carbon trading. Importantly, discussions will center on how these markets can support sustainable development in poorer countries.
The global stocktake portrays a moment of truth
A critical outcome of COP29 will be the Global Stocktake, a comprehensive assessment of the world’s progress in limiting global warming. As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), detailing their emissions reduction efforts. COP29 will evaluate whether these pledges are sufficient to meet the agreement’s goal of keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C.
The stocktake this year will be more important than ever. With the world already seeing a rise of 1.2°C, there’s little room left for error. The findings of the stocktake will guide nations as they prepare to enhance their climate commitments by 2025, ensuring that the global response to climate change is ambitious enough to avoid catastrophic consequences.
Private sector to act as catalysts for climate innovation
Beyond governments, the private sector is poised to play an increasingly significant role at COP29. Corporations, recognizing both the risks and opportunities presented by climate change, are expected to announce new initiatives aimed at reducing their carbon footprints. Climate innovation hubs, set to be established at the summit, will encourage collaboration between businesses, governments, and researchers to develop cutting-edge solutions for emissions reductions and renewable energy deployment.
Will COP29 mark a turning point?
As the world looks to COP29, the stakes have never been higher. Climate finance, energy transitions, biodiversity, adaptation, and carbon markets—each of these issues represents a critical piece of the puzzle in the fight against climate change. Azerbaijan, as host, faces the daunting challenge of balancing competing interests while pushing for ambitious global action. The outcomes of this summit will determine whether we can truly turn the tide on climate change or if, once again, the world will fall short of its promises. Only time will tell if Baku will be remembered as a milestone or another missed opportunity in the battle to save our planet.
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