Global solar module prices stable-to-firm as markets wind down for year end

FOB China: The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark assessment for TOPCon modules from China held steady this week at $0.087/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China, with price indications between $0.083-0.095/W.

The module market continues to stagnate as the industry digests the impact of the recently signed “self-regulation agreement” by over 30 Chinese solar companies, which aims to stabilize prices by controlling supply.

“Most module makers are now likely to run at 50-70% operating rates, compared to 80% last year. Weak demand is still driving prices lower,” a producer said.

Despite these efforts, prices have shown little sign of recovery. A top-five module producer told OPIS that “strong sales pressure” and the need to clear old inventory prevent any meaningful price increases, at least through the first half of 2025. Although manufacturers are encouraged to operate at reduced capacity in the coming months, market sentiment indicates that high inventory levels and slower turnover may continue to keep prices low.

DDP Europe: TOPCon module prices rose by another 1.00%. OPIS assessed the average price at €0.099 ($0.102)/W, with indications between a low of €0.075/W and a high of €0.115/W for Tier 1 panels.

According to sources, sluggish European module demand and severe selloffs over the past months have added downward pressure to prices. However, they expect that by the end of December, there could be a slight uptick in DDP Europe panel values.

Freight rates, published by Freightos for the China/East Asia-North Europe Ocean route, decreased 5.13% to $5,051 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). This corresponds to $0.00126/W.

DDP US: Prices are stable this week, with OPIS continuing to assess the spot price for utility-scale TOPCon modules DPP U.S. at $0.285/W. Forward indications show the price for delivery in the first quarter of 2025 at $0.293/W and Mono PERC modules for the same delivery period at $0.282/W.

Developers continue to rush to lock up module inventory before the new year in order to safe harbor their projects’ 2024 eligibility for the ITC, in fear of modifications to the incentive under the new Trump administration. One source noted that any company placing orders in the coming weeks must also take delivery within three and a half months. A distributor source said he is moving inventory quickly, but said if a change to the ITC passes next year, developers should have until the new tax code takes effect – – potentially later in the year – – to safe harbor their projects’ 2025 eligibility.

Price hikes related to the late-November anti-dumping preliminary determination by the DOC continue to dominate conversations in the market. A distributor source told OPIS their customer was quoted around $0.41/W for Q1 delivery utility scale TOPCon modules by a subject supplier hit with a high cash deposit rate.

While it’s generally expected that non-subject companies will raise prices as well to take advantage of the situation, some sources are skeptical. One major developer said there is enough operational capacity outside of the four subject countries – – and in the U.S. – – to cover roughly 40 GW of yearly demand. And given most major suppliers have already laid plans to open cell factories outside of the region, the pain will likely be short-lived, he said. A distributor told OPIS he had seen a few-cent bump in prices out of Indonesia and Laos, but given the prices before the preliminary determinations hovered in the high teens and low .20s, it has not registered much.

OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.

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