2024 solar snapshot and the road ahead

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Solar module manufacturing capacity hits 63 GW

India has reached a solar PV module manufacturing capacity of around 63 GW as per the Approved List of Models & Manufacturers (ALMM) published by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. This information was shared by the Minister of State for New and Renewable Energy Shripad Yesso Naik in the parliament recently.

To increase domestic production of PV modules, the government has taken initiatives like Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme for High Efficiency Solar PV Modules, domestic content requirement for subsidy support projects/schemes launched by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, preference to ‘Make in India’ in Public Procurement, and imposition of basic customs duty on import of solar PV cells and modules.

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Gujarat tops in residential rooftop solar installations under PM-Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana

As of Nov. 21, 2024, the Indian government’s PM-Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana scheme has attracted 14,488,565 registrations and 2,582,535 applications, leading to an overall 616,019 number of residential rooftop solar installations. This information was shared by Shripad Yesso Naik, minister of state for new & renewable energy and power, in the Lok Sabha (the lower house of the parliament).

Gujarat accounted for 46% (281,769) of the overall 616,019 residential rooftop solar installations under this scheme as of Nov. 21. It is followed by Maharashtra (120,696). Uttar Pradesh, which has installed 51,313 systems under the scheme, has attracted the maximum number of registrations 2,223,461 and 534,529 applications.

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20 GW solar added in twelve months ending October

India installed 30 GW of new power generation capacity in the twelve months ending Oct. 2024, taking the cumulative installations to 454 GW. Over 75% (22.5 GW) of this 30 GW addition was from renewable energy source, with solar alone forming 20 GW, says a new report by SBICAPS.

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Renewables (including large hydro) share reaches 45% in India’s cumulative installed power capacity

All-India power generation capacity reached about 453 GW as of September 2024 with renewables (including large hydro) having a share of 45%. In terms of power generation, renewable energy’s share is expected to be 23% in FY25, says a new report by India Ratings & Research.

India Ratings expects the incremental capacity addition to continue to be dominated by renewables, with nearly 80 GW of under-construction solar, wind and solar-wind hybrid capacities, and another 95GW under various stages of development.

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Solar PV module exports soared 23 times between FY 2022 and FY 2024

India exported around $2 billion worth of PV modules in fiscal year (FY) 2024. The export value of PV modules from India increased by more than 23 times in just two years between FY2022 and FY2024, according to a joint report by IEEFA and JMK Research.

The report says USA is the top destination with 97% and 99% share of India’s PV exports in FY2023 and FY2024, respectively. India also exports PV products to South Africa, Somalia, Kenya, the UAE, Afghanistan, Nepal and Bangladesh.

As per the report, despite increased logistics expenses, domestic manufacturers can earn 40-60% higher profit margins on PV module sales in developed nations like the US than in India.

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India’s climate policies to reduce 4 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions between 2020 and 2030

India’s current emission mitigation policies for power, residential and transport sectors have already mitigated 440 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) between 2015 and 2020, and are on track to save 3,950 MtCO2 emissions between 2020 and 2030, according to a new, independent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). This reduction is equivalent to nearly 1.6 times the European Union’s CO2 emissions in 2023 and is a significant achievement given India’s commitment to reducing emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030 at COP26 in Glasgow.

The study, Impact of Select Climate Policies on India’s Emissions Pathway, said the highest reduction due to the policy interventions is observed in India’s power sector.

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Battery energy storage ecosystem presents INR 3.5 trillion investment opportunity till FY 2032

An SBICAPS report expects India to increase its energy storage capacity 12-fold to 60 GW by FY 2032, outpacing the already impressive growth pencilled in for RE sources. The report adds that the evolving landscape of RE tenders reflects this trend, with a substantial uptick in the proportion of projects incorporating storage solutions, from 5% in FY 2020 to 23% in FY 2024.

While pumped storage projects (PSPs) currently dominate the small energy storage capacity, BESS will constitute a lion’s share by FY 2030, helped by their locational flexibility, promise of technological improvements dipping tariffs further, improving discharge characteristics, and rapid response time. BESS will surge 375 times to 42 GW by FY 2032, from FY 2024 levels, as per the report.

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India to mandate energy storage for solar, wind projects

India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) may soon introduce new policies which will mandate the inclusion of battery storage in new solar and wind projects.

Speaking at the 21st edition of the Global MSME Business Summit organized by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), MNRE Secretary Prashant Kumar Singh said that the government is planning to introduce an initial requirement of 10% of a renewable energy plant’s capacity for storage, which may be increased over time.

The move is aimed at addressing the intermittency of the rapidly growing share of renewable energy in India’s electricity mix and ensuring an around-the-clock power supply.

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Green hydrogen leap presents INR 8-10 trillion opportunity

A new report by SBICAPS says India would need a massive INR 8-10 trillion investment by 2030 to develop its green hydrogen ecosystem envisaged under the National Green Hydrogen Mission. Of this, INR 1.6 trillion will go towards building 60 GW of electrolyser capacity, while INR 4.2 trillion will be required for setting up 5 million tonnes per annum of green molecule production capacities. An additional INR 4.5 trillion would be needed in setting up associated renewables capacity to fuel these new factories.

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Antidumping duty on solar glass from China, Vietnam

Textured toughened (tempered) glass used in solar PV panels and solar thermal products originating in or exported from China and Vietnam will be subject to antidumping duties in India for six months with effect from December 04, 2024.

The duty has been imposed on “textured toughened (tempered) glass with a minimum of 90.5% transmission of thickness not exceeding 4.2 mm (including tolerance of 0.2 mm) and where at least one dimension exceeds 1500 mm, whether coated or uncoated.”

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Power ministry proposes amendments to tariff-based competitive bidding for solar, wind and hybrid renewable energy projects

India’s ministry of power has released draft amendments to guidelines for tariff-based competitive bidding process for procurement of power from grid-connected solar, wind-solar hybrid and renewable energy projects with energy storage systems. As per the new guidelines, the PPA period shall be for a period of 15 years from the scheduled commencement-of-supply date (SCSD), as against 25 years at present.

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ALMM mandate for solar cells from April 1, 2026

India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has invited suggestions from stakeholders on the draft guidelines of the approved list of models and manufacturers (ALMM) for solar cells as it proposes to make it effective from April 2026.

The Ministry has proposed to issue the ALMM list of solar PV cells effective from April 1, 2026, in view of the installed capacity of solar PV cells expected to increase substantially in the next two years.

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ALMM cell mandate to drive up capital cost for solar developers

High prices of domestically manufactured cells may impact the tariff bids at solar power project auctions, says Crisil report.

The prices of Indian solar cells today are 1.5-2.0x more than alternatives from China even after basic customs duty. Such high prices can drive up the capital cost of solar power projects by INR 5-10 million/MW and require tariff increase of 40-50 paise per unit as offset based on current market dynamics.

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Budget 2024-25: India imposes customs duty on solar glass imports, exempts equipment for cell and module manufacturing

The budget gives a fillip to manufacturing by announcing exemption on basic customs duty (BCD) for specified machinery/equipment used in the manufacture of solar cells and modules. These machines earlier attracted a 7.5% customs duty. Duty exemption on these equipment will lower the costs for solar cell and module manufacturers.

Import duty (BCD) exemption has been extended for specified goods used in the manufacture of silicon wafers, specified material for manufacture of EVA (ethylene vinyl acetate) sheets, and flat copper wire for use in the manufacture of photovoltaic ribbon. These are now exempted from BCD up to March 31, 2026. Further, the scope of materials which can be imported is being expanded.

On the other hand, solar glass for manufacture of solar cells or solar modules will attract 10% customs duty from Oct. 1 this year. Tinned copper interconnect for manufacture of solar cells or solar modules will also attract 5% customs duty from Oct. 1.

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