Africa’s solar capacity forecast to double over next four years

A report from the Global Solar Council says Africa’s solar deployment is set to accelerate in the coming years, but stresses that mobilizing finance and strong regulatory frameworks will be required to attract investors.

March 13, 2025 Patrick Jowett

Image: Global Solar Council

Africa could install 23 GW of additional solar by 2028, which would more than double its current capacity, according to the findings of a report from the Global Solar Council (GSC).

The council’s latest report, Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV 2025-2028, adds that solar installations across the continent are expected to increase 42% year-on-year in 2025 after experiencing a slowdown in 2024.

Africa added 2.4 GW of solar last year, according to figures from the council, compared to over 3 GW the year prior. The report attributes the slowdown in deployment to a return to normal installation rates in South Africa following a boom in 2023, as well delayed project development, particularly in North Africa.

While acknowledging that Africa’s 2024 solar additions were dominated by two countries – South Africa and Egypt, which together accounted for three quarters of new solar installations last year – the report also adds that several emerging markets made “serious steps forward in their solar deployment, strengthening the overall health of the continent’s solar prospects”.

Solar deployment in West Africa grew rapidly last year, led by Ghana, which nearly quadrupled its solar capacity by adding 94 MW, followed by Burkina Faso (87 MW) and Nigeria (73 MW). Meanwhile, Zambia doubled its solar capacity last year, adding 69 MW, and Angola, the Ivory Coast and Gambia all entered the top ten African countries for new solar installations for the first time.

Looking ahead, GSC says this growing market diversification will contribute to solar’s surge in Africa, with at least 18 countries forecast to install over 100 MW of new solar capacity this year, compared to two last year. The forecast for 2025 is also buoyed by a wave of projects that were delayed in 2024 but are expected to be commissioned in 2025, the report adds.

GSC’s forecast that Africa could double its solar capacity over the next four years is based on a medium growth scenario and would be dominated by new utility-scale projects, “boosting the installation trend at a pace never seen before,” the report predicts.

The report, however, also stresses that affordable finance mechanisms and strong policy frameworks are required to attract investors and ensure the forecasts materialize. GSC’s analysis adds that Africa’s solar expansion is being held back by capital costs three to seven times higher than in developed countries, highlighting that while clean energy investment doubled to $40 billion globally last year, Africa only accounted for 3% of the investment.

“Many projects are struggling to secure financing because of high interest rates, currency risks, and lack of guarantees,” said Léo Echard, GSC Policy Officer and lead author of the report. “If we can reduce the cost of capital, Africa could become one of the fastest-growing solar markets in the world.”

The report says expanding innovative financing mechanisms, derisking instruments and attracting private sector investment will be critical for lowering the cost of capital for solar in Africa.

It also calls for an increase in domestic solar manufacturing on the continent, the reinforcement of grid infrastructure and the strengthening of policy and regulatory frameworks to attract private sector investment.

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