Indian solar manufacturers must prepare for evolving trade environment, says Rubix report

While Indian solar PV exporters may benefit in the short term from China’s reduced access to the US market, they must prepare for potential disruptions, both from Chinese price competition and possible US tariffs on Indian goods, says a new report by Rubix Data Sciences.

March 18, 2025 Uma Gupta

Adani Group is investing in vertically integrated solar manufacturing, from polysilicon to module assembly.

Photo: Adani Group

Indian solar manufacturers must prepare for potential disruptions, both from Chinese price competition and possible US tariffs on Indian goods. To navigate this evolving trade environment, they need to diversify their markets, enhance domestic production capabilities, and improve product quality, says a new report by Rubix Data Sciences, a risk management and monitoring platform.

The report says recent US tariff hikes on Chinese solar polysilicon, wafers, and cells—now totaling 60%—present both opportunities and risks for India’s solar industry. With the US accounting for over 90% of India’s solar module exports in FY2024, Indian manufacturers like Waaree Energies, Adani Solar, and Vikram Solar stand to gain as Chinese competitors face higher costs. This could strengthen India’s position in the US market, driving increased exports. However, India remains dependent on China for over 50% of its PV cell and module components, particularly polysilicon and wafers. If China redirects its excess supply to India at lower prices to compensate for US losses, domestic manufacturers may struggle with margin pressures and price competition.

The US has also hinted at imposing reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from April 2025, which, the report says, could impact Indian solar exports. If tariffs increase, the cost competitiveness of Indian solar modules in the US may be affected, challenging the industry’s rapid export growth.

Notably, the US continues to be a major export destination for India, with the US share of India’s solar cell and module exports increasing from 66% and 73% in 2022 to over 90% in FY 2024, says the report.

The report adds that India’s installed solar capacity has grown at an impressive 38% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past decade to surpass 100 GW now. In FY2024 alone, India added a record 24.5 GW of solar capacity, more than double the previous year’s installations. The report also highlights a shift toward self-reliance, with solar module imports from China declining from over 90% in FY2022 to 65% in FY2024, while exports surged 23-fold touching nearly USD 2 billion in FY2024.

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