FOB China module prices rise amid growing market expectations of sharp correction by end-Q2

China: The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark assessment for spot TOPCon modules over 600 W from China rose 1.12% to $0.090/W. Free-On-Board (FOB) China, with price indications between $0.085-0.094/wp. FOB China Mono PERC module price was stable at $0.085/W with indications between $0.082-0.088/W.

In the forward market, Q2 2025 loading cargoes were assessed at $0.089/W, while Q3 2025 price was flat at $0.086/wp. Prices for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 held steady at $0.086/W and $0.085/W, respectively. Q2 2026 loading prices remained unchanged at $0.085/W, with offers ranging from $0.080/W to $0.090/W.

FOB China TOPCon below 450 W modules for spot loading were stable at $0.093/W, with price indications between $0.087-0.100/W.

Strong short-term demand—driven by the installation rush ahead of China’s 430 and 531 policies—has prompted leading manufacturers to increase their production for April by up to 3 GW, pushing total output into the low-to-mid 50 GW range. Several top 10 producers have raised their offers by CNY 0.01 ($0.0014)/W and CNY 0.02/W. According to trade sources, rising costs of upstream components such as glass, wafers, and cells have also played a role in the price increases.

Nevertheless, market participants anticipate increasing price pressure in mid-April as procurement activity peaks. Several manufacturers have also expressed concerns about a potential sharp correction in module prices in May or June, following the implementation of relevant policies. As noted by a leading producer, the outlook for sustained module price increases in the second half of 2025 appears weak, given the expected decline in demand.

Europe: DDP Europe prices for TOPCon modules over 600 W rose by 0.99% on the week to €0.102 ($0.115)/W, with market indications ranging from €0.096/W to €0.112/W for Tier-1 panels.

Similarly, EXW Europe prices for TOPCon modules below 450 W rose by 0.97%, assessed at €0.104/W, with reported indications ranging from €0.097/W to €0.115/W for Tier-1 panels.

Market sources concurred that module prices may continue to rise through mid-2025, after which they are expected to stabilize within the range of €0.110/W to €0.120/W. A return to the early-year lows of €0.080/W is deemed unlikely.

The current price increases are not being uniformly adopted across all Chinese manufacturers, sources remarked. Significant price differences—often several euro cents—have been observed between the Top 5 and Top 10 manufacturers, largely influenced by factors such as liquidity and inventory levels.

On the supply side, delivery times for major producers are reportedly tightening, and securing inventory is becoming more difficult amid tighter supply than last year. Most shipments are reportedly sold in transit, rarely reaching warehouse shelves.

U.S.: The spot price for TOPCon over 600 W DDP US was assessed this week at $0.258/W, up 0.78% from last week, while the spot price for Mono PERC modules below 450 W EXW rose 4.17% to $0.325/W.

On a forward-looking basis, OPIS is assessing the cost of TOPCon modules in the first quarter of 2026 at $0.276/W, and Mono PERC modules in the same period at $0.266/W.

The market continues to digest the implications of President Trump’s recent announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs, which have significantly impacted Southeast Asian countries with substantial solar manufacturing capacities. Notably, new tariff rates include 48% for Laos, 32% for Indonesia, and 26% for India.

Larger price increases are anticipated looking forward as the tariffs take effect. A U.S.-based source noted that module prices for imports from Southeast Asia may rise by approximately $0.05/W in the near term, potentially making U.S.-made modules more competitively priced.

Market participants report that module import volumes into the U.S. have surged in recent months, as buyers have been stockpiling goods ahead of the tariff rollout. For shipments not yet dispatched, suppliers are reportedly engaging in negotiations with buyers to revise existing agreements and share the additional tariff burden. One source revealed a request for their customer to pay an additional $0.06/wp on top of the previously agreed price.

OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.

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