Policy

In the first big auction, a day after the imposition of a 25% safeguard duty on solar imports, the winning tariff of Rs 2.79 (US$0.041) at the 200 MW Odisha auction took the industry by surprise.

Inspectors from solar risk management company PI Berlin visited six projects and exposed cost-cutting in installation, non-existent warranties, serious safety concerns and improbable performance figures.

The Indian government has imposed a safeguard duty of 25% on solar imports from China and Malaysia for two years. The Ministry of Finance (Department of Revenue) levied the duty based on the final recommendations proposed by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR). While most industry players are dismayed, believing project costs could “immediately” go up by 15%, others are more optimistic.

Owing to a rapid scaling up of solar capacity, Karnataka has overtaken Tamil Nadu to become India’s top state in terms of installed renewable energy capacity. The state installed 5 GW of new PV capacity in 2017-18 alone—according to a report by the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

Citing high tariff of INR 3.48 ($0.050)/kWh as untenable, the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) has cancelled the recent auction for the development of 1 GW grid-connected solar PV projects across the state.

India is currently the second largest market in the world for PV module demand. With China’s domestic demand frozen since the 31/5 notification, the country’s total module demand in 2018 will likely only achieve 32-34 GW. This will allow India, which may surpass 10 GW in annual demand, to reach 13% of global PV demand this year. As a result, the future of India’s trade war has become an influential factor in the global PV industry.

The remarkable 4 GW of solar capacity added last year has seen the state displace Tamil Nadu as the nation’s renewables top dog. And there is more to come, according to a new report, with PV set to account for a third of rising energy demand over the next decade.

Calling for a complete exemption of the 25% safeguard duty on solar equipment, India’s Solar Power Developers Association (SPDA) says, if imposed, it will jeopardize the viability of around 27,000 MW of solar projects involving an investment of more than Rs 1 lakh crore (around US$15 billion). Other key players also speak out against the tariff plans.

The proposed safeguard tariffs on imports from China and Malaysia are expected to generate a number of painful short-term impacts. Overall they are not expected to change much in the market, however, says TrendForce. What will have a bigger effect is the EU’s final MIP decision, due in September.

The two-year period of the recommended safeguard duty is very short, discouraging any investment in setting up new solar manufacturing capacity, say analysts and companies pv magazine spoke to. At the same time, for solar project developers, the duty will impact tariffs to the tune of 12-15%, posing an immediate threat to viability of projects under execution, they add.