World

An uptick in global PV demand will occur in 2020, with China’s 30.5 policy directly affecting 2018’s results by around 18%, says GTM Research. Rapidly falling module prices will benefit predominantly Asian markets, where modules comprise the lion’s share of capex, although regions like Europe will see increased installations. Laying out 10 PV predictions, it anticipates, among others, intensified competition, lower bid prices, more technology neutral auctions and an increasing amount of subsidy free solar.

India is currently the second largest market in the world for PV module demand. With China’s domestic demand frozen since the 31/5 notification, the country’s total module demand in 2018 will likely only achieve 32-34 GW. This will allow India, which may surpass 10 GW in annual demand, to reach 13% of global PV demand this year. As a result, the future of India’s trade war has become an influential factor in the global PV industry.

While Africa has emerged as a dynamic, fast-moving hub, Asia leads in capacity deployment with its total capacity more than tripling to nearly 4.3 GW in 2017 from 1.3 GW in 2008, finds IRENA. Particularly, in India, a strong policy has pushed deployment of off-grid solar for agriculture and public end-uses.

While overall global investment in clean energy saw a decrease of just 1% YoY in the first half of 2018, solar’s share dropped 19% following changes to China’s PV policy and lower project costs, says Bloomberg NEF (BNEF). It forecasts this trend to continue throughout the year.

In a significant development, two major international solar coalitions – the Global Solar Council (GSC) and the International Solar Alliance (ISA) – signed an MoU for the cooperation and collaboration of solar growth in all ISA-member countries. Pranav Mehta from the GSC talks to pv magazine about the move.

Solar PV capacity is set to grow 17-fold, and wind six-fold, by 2050, to account for nearly half of global electricity generation, predicts BNEF, while investments will reach US$11.5 trillion. Cost reductions will drive this charge, particularly in the battery market, which will benefit from the EV manufacturing ramp up. Despite this, the electricity sector is still failing to bring CO₂ emissions down to the required levels, with its continued dependence on gas.

Global newly installed capacity for 2018 is forecast to reach 102.6 GW, of which “only” 39 GW are expected to come from China. Fourteen countries are expected to cross the GW threshold this year.

Global solar PV demand this year will be less than in 2017, on the back of China’s latest policy decision, says TrendForce. Overall, it sees new installs dropping 40% in China to 31.6 GW. The protectionist measures taken by the U.S. will also be weakened by the resulting falling module prices.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance says EVs will make up only 7% of new car sales in nation by 2030, compared to a predicted 44% for European sales, 41% in China, 34% in the US and 17% in Japan

According to figures released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), there are more than 10 million people working in the renewable energy industry. In 2017 alone, the sector added more than 500,000 jobs globally, up 5.3 % from 2016, with solar PV the biggest employer.